Israel Strikes Iran
Introduction
A few days ago, Iran struck Israel with more than 300 fired objects. In response, Israel's top officials held a meeting in which they decided that they would respond to Iran as soon as possible.
These retaliated strikes from Israel were expected. In the context of these strikes, we will build an analysis of the future possible implications in the long term and short term of Israel’s strikes.
Background
- If we look at the background of the two states' conflict, the major trigger is the 7th October events. In which Israel launched strikes on Gaza.
- In response to Israel, Iran and its proxies strongly condemn Israel's invasion of Gaza.
- Furthermore, the Israelis accused the Iranians of using its proxies (Hothies, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc) against the state of Israel. Therefore, a shadow war was launched by Iranians against Israel.
- In this context, Israel carried out a strike on 1st April against the Iranian IRGC Generals in Damascus in the Irani consulate.
- As a result of Israel’s strike, Iran carried out its strikes after 2 weeks against Israel. Although Israel did not suffer losses.
- It was the first time in more than 50 years that any state outside Palestine had breached Israel’s sovereignty.
Israel’s Response to Iran’s Direct Attack
- In response, Israeli drones attacked the Iranian air base out of the city of Isfahan.
- But Iranians claimed that this attack was carried out inside Iran in which no major losses were reported. And the situation is normal in that part of Iran.
- The Americans confirmed that Israel’s military carried out this attack. In other words, this was a drone attack against Iran.
- This attack was meant to retaliate against the Iranian strikes in Israel.
- However, Iranians claimed that this attack was not a foreign attack, it looks as if this attack was carried out inside Iran.
Critical Analysis
Israel did not officially own this attack inside Iran. And according to Iran it was not a major strike and it did not affect and hurt Iran. So if we analyze the entire situation, I believe that this conflict is going towards de-escalation. But it also depends on how Iranians will react to this event.
Conclusion
To conclude, this could be the last series of retaliation between both states. On the other side, the Israelis had to retaliate against Iran because previously Israel had attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus not in Iran but in response to that attack Iran directly hit Israel from its own soil. Therefore, it was expected that Israel would retaliate against Irani territory. However, the only question was to what extent this attack led to further escalation and destruction.
We can safely say that this conflict is not over but it is less likely to spoil out in the short-term. However, we cannot ignore the possibility of the continuity of shadow war between both states. The spark of direct conflict is still there. Any kind of major crossing of the line by any one party against another directly or indirectly is likely to repeat of what has happened now.